Historical Legacies and Political Stability: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 27 Former Soviet and Eastern Bloc Countries

Abstract

This article examines why post-communist countries in Eastern Europe and Eurasia experienced markedly different levels of political stability after the collapse of communist rule. Existing scholarship has largely focused on democratic transition, institutional design, or external democratizing pressure, while paying less attention to the historically embedded conditions that shaped political order after regime change. From the perspective of historical legacies, this article conducts an empirical study of 27 post-communist countries. The correlation results indicate that post-communist political stability is closely associated with cross-national differences in historical legacies. Qualitative Comparative Analysis further shows how specific legacies and their combinations are associated with political stability. The findings suggest that four conditions are particularly robust: the absence of a predominantly Muslim religious-cultural background, a predominantly Western Christian religious background, a relatively high economic reform index before transition, and a relatively strong communist bureaucratic institutional legacy. These results do not imply that religion or any single legacy mechanically determines political order. Rather, they suggest that post-communist political stability is embedded in longer historical configurations that conditioned state capacity, social integration, reform adaptability, and the institutional resources available during transition. The article therefore argues that post-communist stability cannot be explained only by immediate institutional choices or short-term political strategies; it must also be understood through the interaction of cultural, economic, and institutional legacies.