Perspectives of Future Russo-Georgian War: Real Possibility or Speculation

Abstract

The war which outbroke in Ukraine recently made the loud headlines in newspapers and media. Europe observed unimaginable act of violence in the form of war and the myth about the end of war culture has collapsed. EU became actively involved in creation of initiatives aimed at restoring peace, hosting refugees and punishing the wrongdoers. At the same time, other future potential victim states like Moldova and Georgia started to search for protection.

In Jun 2022 all three states, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova applied for the fast track to European Union which became the symbol of liberal, free world where the states could be protected from Russian soft power influence. However, after the EU decision only two of three candidates were granted the fast track: Ukraine and Moldova. Georgia was given recommendations for further considerations.

The article aims to explore what are the possible chances for more future tensions between Russia and Georgia who just had a war a decade ago in 2008. How probable is the aggression from Russian federation after the denial of fast track? Serious concern rises as we remember the statement of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that required withdrawal of Bucharest Summit decision on Ukraine and Georgia as future members of NATO. This 2021 December statement was followed by war in Ukraine. Does this mean we should also expect military actions in Georgia?